Egypt or Ethiopia .. Who would benefit most from the US Treasury Statement


05:24 am

Friday 17 January 2020

Books – Muhammad Nassar and Ahmed Musaad:

The US Department of the Treasury issued a statement on Wednesday evening, regarding the Renaissance Dam negotiations in Washington, with the participation of the World Bank. The statement stressed that the foreign ministers and water resources in Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan indicated that the implementation of the mobilization of the Renaissance Dam will be carried out in stages, indicating that the process of mobilizing the dam will take place during the rainy season in general from July to August, to continue in September according to certain conditions.

The statement also pointed out that the ministers of the three countries are aware of the important regional benefits that could result from concluding an agreement on the Renaissance Dam, stressing that an effective coordination mechanism and provisions for settling disputes will be established.

Failure to specify the years of the first filling period

Dr. Mohamed Nasr Allam, the former Minister of Irrigation, said that the filling of the Renaissance Dam will be in stages in a dynamic coordination framework (adjustable and cooperative development) depending on the hydrological conditions of the Blue Nile and the repercussions of filling on the two downstream countries, provided that filling in July and August sometimes extends to a month September is under agreed conditions, and the statement also stated that the first storage period will be fast without specifying the number of years to fill the dam lake until the level of 595 meters above sea level to operate the dam power stations, taking into account the repercussions of that on the downstream country if this period witnessed draining Influentially.

Allam confirmed to Masrawy that the next stages of storage until the full filling of the dam will be according to a mechanism – to be agreed upon – to calculate the dam’s water disposal according to the water level in the dam lake, the hydrological conditions of the blue Nile, the amount of electrical energy required to be generated from the dam and the prevailing drought conditions, in addition to operating The dam will be based on a similar mechanism and a mechanism for coordination and follow-up will be agreed upon, and another for resolving disputes.

The former Minister of Irrigation continued: “The statement stated that managing drought problems is a shared responsibility between the three countries, and that these countries agreed to meet in Washington on January 28-29 to sign the final agreement to store and operate, to be preceded by several meetings between the three countries for legal and technical discussions. For sticking points. “

Unresolved difficult problems

Allam said that until now there is only agreement on the initial storage of its importance to Ethiopia, and there are also difficult problems that have not been solved around the rest of the storage stages as well as the procedures and rules for operating the dam, and this may be due to disagreements over Ethiopias demands for a water share, but it will often be within the limits of losses and necessities. And some disputes about some drought criteria and the responsibility to manage them. The term natural flow of the Blue Nile was excluded and replaced to form the hydrological conditions of the Blue Nile, which may be due directly to an Ethiopian request to obtain a share of the Blue Nile water.

Ethiopian mystery and strictness

He continued: “It is not understood the meaning or consequences (the joint responsibility of the three countries in managing drought and prolonged drought), and what kind of these responsibilities are, and what are the responsibilities of Sudan in this regard ?, It is clear that the negotiations are difficult and the Ethiopian side is tough, and the remaining negotiations will be very difficult, and he has This requires an Egyptian militancy in some of what we have in this difficult equation. “

not final

Dr. Hani Raslan, head of the Sudan Studies Unit and the Nile Basin at the Al-Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies, said that the statement of the US Treasury in its entirety and the foundations clarified by the statement are close to the Egyptian proposals on Renaissance Dam negotiations regarding the currency of the dam reservoir and its connection to the rainy season.

Raslan added, to Masrawy, that we must wait to know the details and results of the final agreement on the dam negotiations, because the US statement is a framework and not a final agreement.

The Head of the Sudan Studies Unit and the Nile Basin continued: “This statement takes the general character and talks about a mechanism for resolving disputes, which is what the Egyptian demands are based on, but the details and technical terms of the agreement and the Ethiopian position remain at the final agreement.”

Dr. Abbas Sharqi, head of the natural resources department at the African Research Institute at Cairo University, explained that the initial filling has nothing to do with rain because it takes place in the first weeks of the season.

Achieves the goals of Ethiopia

Shereqi told Masrawy that filling in the later stages is supposed to be according to the hydrological conditions, that is, rain. Instead of placing according to the storage situation in the High Dam, the storage condition was placed in the Renaissance Dam in order to achieve Ethiopias goals in generating electricity.

He continued: “What the statement mentioned in the event of drought takes into account the easing of Egypt and Sudan, and there is no confirmation of Egypt’s share or no harm, whether significant or tangible, or maintaining the flow of the natural revenue of the Blue Nile after filling, or the passage of a certain amount or percentage of the annual river’s revenue.” .

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