Medical scientists’ expectations for the new “Corona” epidemic

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Medical scientists' expectations for a virus epidemic

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                    Vichan Poti / Keystone Press Agency

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US and British scientists have released their assessment of the seriousness of the new Corona Virus 2019-nCoV epidemic from China.

MedRxiv.org reports that researchers from the University of Lancaster Medical Information, Statistics and Computing Center, University of Glasgow Medical Research Council (UK) and the Institute of Biology and New Pathogens at the University of Florida, America, have published their forecasts for epidemiological indicators of the new 2019-CoronaV virus.

According to scientists, the primary reproductive rate of infection (average number of second infections) ranges between 3.6 and 4.0, while WHO estimates were 1.4-2.5. As for influenza 2-3 and abnormal pneumonia since the beginning of this century about three. Generally, in any case, depending on the level of mortality declared, the new Corona virus is very disturbing.

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The scientists point out, in their expectations, that the number of injuries officially registered in Wuhan alone as of January 21 was 11,341. This means that the level of detection of the disease is equivalent to only 5.1% of the actual number of patients. And if the measures taken by the concerned authorities remain at their current level, until February 4, the number of people infected with the new “Corona” virus in Wuhan will increase to 190,000, and the virus will spread widely in Shanghai, Beijing, Guangzhou and other cities, and the countries of Thailand and Japan will become Taiwan, Hong Kong and South Korea are in danger.

Scientists believe that 75% of infections can be prevented with control measures. But they question the idea of ​​isolating the city of Wuhan. Because imposing quarantine on Wuhan will reduce the number of injured in other parts of China by only 24.9%.

The researchers note that these are preliminary conclusions and may be high because they are “based on information proven in the form they prepared.”

Source: Novosti



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