Deutsche Bank expects the future of the pound against the dollar


Deutsche Bank expects the growth rate in Egypt to rise to about 5.8% and 5.9% in the fiscal years 2020 and 2021, respectively, up from 5.6% recorded by the economy in the fiscal year 2018/2019, largely due to the gradual recovery in consumption rates in the sector The private.

The bank expected the inflation rate to drop dramatically to remain at unilateral rates throughout 2020, and the high exchange rate of the pound and the decline in global oil prices, along with government intervention to control prices in the food market, help to contain and curb inflation.He explained that the moderate levels of inflation in the recent period came as a result of the stability of food prices, adding that the view of the drop in oil prices, along with the rise of the Egyptian pound, will work to curb any inflationary pressures, expecting that the recovery in private consumption rates will begin gradually.

The report believes that the improvement in net exports will continue, as Egypt’s dependence on imports of energy and fuel is expected to decrease due to the increase in domestic production, and non-oil exports will witness an increase in the coming period, with higher production of gold, electronics and pharmaceuticals, thanks to a competitive increase Egyptian goods since the liberalization of the exchange rate in late 2016.

He explained that for the major infrastructure projects that the state is paying, foreign direct investment flows in the field of developing oil and gas fields, building a new capital and developing the Suez Canal hub (along with the industrial areas surrounding it).

He expected the Egyptian pound to rise against the US dollar to continue to reach the level of 15.5 with the end of the first half of 2020 and 15 at the end of the year, additional structural improvements began in the current account and the balance of payments as the petroleum trade balance improved as a result of lower import volumes and Egypt achieving self-sufficiency in natural gas And improved security conditions, in addition to investments in infrastructure, contribute to increasing tourism flows and higher revenues from the Suez Canal, and it is expected that the payment of previous dues to foreign companies will lead to the payment of more foreign direct investments, especially in Energy obeyed.

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