Curve Blasting: An Explanation of the Current Strategy to Fight the New Corona Virus

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Over the past weeks the spread has shifted Corona virus emerging To an unstoppable global epidemic, which prompted the World Health Organization to classify it as a global pandemic, in conjunction with its widespread spread in several continents and many countries outside China, such as Iran, Italy and many other European countries. The figures on the number of infections are increasing day by day, in parallel with the increasing number of deaths and the discovery of new hotbeds of HIV-associated disease.

This crisis situation has prompted many governments and health organizations around the world to spread health awareness on the highest possible scale among the population within the efforts to combat the spread of the virus, and a new feature has emerged in this context. FlattenTheCurve # It spreads on social media along with a simple drawing called “Flatten the Curve”. What is this marking and what is the intended curve and how does its marking contribute to fighting the virus?

On the Emerging Corona Virus Spread: A Battle of Time

In order to understand Virus spread And diseases, workers in the medical and biological field depend on some mathematical tools that help them to predict possible future scenarios, from the worst to the best, And the exponential growth model It is the simplest form of mathematics and statistics based tools that allows us to understand how the situation will be in the future in terms of the spread of the virus.

Viruses are spreading rapidly and increasingly, which means that the number of new infections today will be among the highest new infections yesterday, and so on until a maximum value is reached, after which the infection rate begins to decrease. In light of the widespread spread of the virus and its presence in many countries and cities, it is no longer possible to stop its spread, and this means that the number of infections will continue to increase, and even measures relating to travel bans and closing borders between countries and limiting different activities and events will not contribute to stopping the spread of the virus or preventing the increasing number Injuries.

In other words, the battle to contain the virus and stop its spread has ended in its favor, and the focus now is on another battle: the battle of time to be able to control the current situation and ensure that it does not turn into a health catastrophe at the level of the countries most affected by the spread of the virus. This is what leads us to the idea of ​​the curve being distorted, which has begun to be widely frequented by officials and experts in many countries, to describe the strategy that must be followed in combating and combating the spread of the virus.

Curve Blaster: Avoid the worst case scenario

When talking about any health disaster or epidemic, the term curve is frequently echoed by experts and workers in the field of diseases, epidemics, and health care in general. What experts are talking about is the need to take action to make the spread of the virus slower.

Let’s remember how the virus spreads: a rapid increase in the number of infections thanks to a high rate of growth, which means that the number of infections reached a very large value within a short time, and then begins to decrease. What the experts want is to avoid this, and instead of a rapid increase in the number of infections in a short period of time, the goal is to slow the spread of the virus, which leads to slowing the rate of its growth and not reaching a very large number of infections within weeks, even months. If we represent this using graphical curves, we get two curves that can be illustrated as:

Curve spacing: Instead of large infections and in a short time, the spread of the virus can be slowed down and the number of infections reduced through the available preventive measures.

The previous graphic has two curves: the first is shaded in gray and the second is shaded in red, and each expresses how the number of HIV infections has increased over time, and the relationship with superpower hospitals’ capacity to treat infections. In the case of the gray curve, we will easily notice that in the absence of effective measures to reduce and slow the spread of the virus, the number of infections will reach a very large value within a short period of time and exceed the capacity of hospitals to treat, and in a country like the United States of America, the The worst current forecast is for injuries to reach 214 million people. In the case of the red curve, and when effective preventive measures are taken, the number of infected cases will increase more slowly and will not reach a point where hospitals will not be able to treat them.

Depending on the previous image, we will be able to understand why experts say that the curve should be “drained”: instead of the gray curve with a high top, we have to work where the curve has to take another shape with a concave top, in other words, rather than suddenly waking up to a huge number of injuries Without the ability to treat it, it would be better if the number of infections increased in proportion to the capacity of hospitals and health organizations to treat.

The effect of curve concavity on anti-corona virus

Hospitals and health organizations have a specific ability to address large-scale health problems, and when a virus spreads very quickly among the population, the priority will always be for more serious cases, but if the infection rate is very high, then the percentage of serious cases will also be very high, and here the problem lies: if the number exceeds Serious injuries requiring health care within the hospital Hospital capacity to treat The death rate will increase dramatically. This happened in China itself, with the tremendous increase in the number of injuries within Wuhan and the lack of preparedness of hospitals to receive all these injuries. There was a state of the collapse of the health care system, that is, the inability to treat all patients who need urgent treatment. This prompted the government in China to rush to build new hospitals dedicated to treating people living with HIV in Wuhan. The same scenario was repeated in Italy, where the number of injuries increased very significantly and during a record period, which made hospitals unable to receive all those who need health care, which was finally reflected in the death rate in Italy, which is currently the highest in the world.

On the other hand, when taking precautions and adopting health care procedures in the best way possible, it is possible to slow the spread of the virus within the cities and countries concerned, thus reducing the number of infections that may suffer from serious effects and as a result reduce the pressure on hospitals and health care systems and give them more time to treat all cases That will appear.

On the other hand, an important matter must be realized regarding the curve specification issue: the battle against the Corona virus at the present time is a time battle, and this is not only to provide hospitals with the time necessary to absorb and treat all patients, but also to gain the time needed to manufacture a drug or vaccine against the virus, So far, there is no vaccine or drug that can be used against the virus The current indicators estimate the time required for this to be around 18 months. This is best done. Slowing the spread of the virus will lead to more time for researchers and those involved in the development of vaccines and medicines to develop an effective drug against it that can be produced and distributed for effective use in treating infected people, thus stopping and eliminating the spread of the virus.

Howard Markle says, A researcher in the field of medical history at the University of Michigan on the concept of curve distillation: “A disease outbreak somewhere may mean its spread everywhere. We must all work together to avoid the emergence of new infections in our societies. The disease spread through the emerging coronavirus is spread through friction and social contact, and therefore we all have a responsibility to stop it. We form a small society, whether recognized or not, and it is time for us to act as one. ” Markle is considered a specialist in the field of virus spread, after his work and research on the spread of the SARS virus and the spread of swine flu through the H1N1 virus in 2009.

Conclusion: slow the spread rather than stopping it

In general, the spread of the Coruna virus can no longer be stopped or even prevented, as it has become a global pandemic. Scientists and researchers are trying to gain time to develop an effective vaccine or even a drug that can be used against the virus, in parallel with health care agencies and institutions working to prepare as best as possible.

The spread of the virus in its current form means reaching a huge number of infections within a short period, and the worst possibility is that two-thirds of the planet’s population will be infected with the virus, and with current mortality rates, this could lead to the loss of lives of hundreds of millions of people within the coming months. To avoid this scenario, the focus is now on anti-virus strategy by slowing its spread.

For these reasons, the commitment to follow the formal health rules and procedures is necessary at this time, starting with the concern to clean hands continuously, not to touch the face, and to reduce social contact if not necessary, and to cancel activities that involve large gatherings. On the other hand, spreading awareness about the virus and ways to prevent it through accreditation Information from trusted authorities (Such as WHO and official government agencies) is also important and essential; it may contribute Fake information or misleading news By spreading healthy habits and creating false illusions about the virus and ways to combat it. This also came to light in Italy because of the initial disregard for the virus and its treatment as a mere filtration that you do not need to worry about, and the result was a health disaster.





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