The Minister of Planning reveals to deputies the date of ending the Corona crisis in Egypt


03:27 PM

Sunday 03 May 2020

Books – Ahmed Ali:

Dr. Hala Al-Saeed, Minister of Planning and Economic Development, said during a discussion of the basic features of the sustainable development plan for the year 2020-2021, today, Sunday, in Parliament, that most international institutions agreed that the current crisis, due to the Corona virus, is more severe than previous economic crises, due to many The reasons, including that it affected both supply and demand side with the impact of global value chains, the stoppage of industrialization activity in many countries, the decline in the level of wages, the increase in fear cases, in addition to the high rates of unemployment and the decline in consumer confidence, and that the crisis affected all sectors at the same time .

Al-Saeed pointed out that the global economy is facing growth losses of no less than $ 5.5 trillion, pointing out that many international institutions have lowered their expectations regarding global economic growth rates after the spread of the Corona virus by retreating values ​​(2% -3%).

On the expectations of international institutions for the performance of the growth of the Egyptian economy, Al-Saeed indicated that the World Bank indicated that Egypt is the best performing indicator of statistical capabilities among the countries of the Middle East and North Africa issued by the bank and measures the quality of data and accessibility, and is the only country that is expected to achieve rates Positive growth per capita of gross domestic product among the economies of the region, as the International Monetary Fund indicated that Egypt is the only country in the region that maintains economic growth.

The Minister of Planning and Economic Development indicated that with regard to the expected economic growth rate in 2019-2020, in light of the outbreak of the Corona virus, the continuation of the repercussions of the crisis until June 2020 has become a highly probable thing, which would affect the growth rates of the third and fourth quarters of the year The current fiscal, where it was intended to achieve a growth rate by the end of 2019-2020 of 5.8%, but it is expected to reach 4.2% with the slowdown in the third and fourth quarters to 4.5% and 1%, respectively.

During her talk, the Minister touched on the existence of two scenarios to recover from the Corona virus crisis: containing the virus by the end of June 2020 or the end of December 2020, and each of them has a specific shock that will affect different degrees in different sectors, noting that in the case of recovery, all sectors do not recover in a similar way, Some of them will recover quickly and others will require longer time to recover, but there are some sectors that have a great deal of flexibility and ability to bear the crisis and rapid recovery, and some of them have opportunities that will maximize their benefit, such as sectors (agriculture, communications, information technology, and the pharmaceutical industry Chemical products, construction and construction), which sectors can be based on economic growth.

Al-Saeed added that a growth rate of 3.5% is expected during the fiscal year 2020-2021 if the outbreak of the Corona Virus outbreak ends at the end of the current fiscal year 2019-2020, the effects of which are expected to extend to the first quarter of the fiscal year 2020-2021 or the entire first half. However, if the crisis persists until December 2020, the targeted growth rate will decrease to 2%.

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