US researcher warns of “worst case scenario”: Corona will not end until

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02:23 PM

Wednesday 13 May 2020

I wrote – Rana Osama:

One of the leading American researchers in infectious diseases warned that the new Corona virus will not end until it affects every person who can be infected, noting that it is still in its early stages of attacking the world, which threatens most Americans even if they comply with the orders to stay at home, especially as The United States is the country most affected by the pandemic, which affected more than 4 million people within 5 months.

Michael Ostrholm, director of the Center for Infectious Diseases Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota, said the first wave of “Covid 19” in cities like New York, Los Angeles and Seattle is only a “small portion” of the worst scenario that has yet to happen, according to the newspaper. USA Today “American.

“This dreaded virus will continue until it infects everyone who can be infected,” Osterholm said in an interview with the editorial board of the American newspaper.

He suggested that “it will not slow down until it affects between 60 and 70 percent of Americans, which is the number that would develop what is known as” herd immunity “, where society can then prevent the spread of the virus.

He pointed out that if the incidence of corona recedes this summer, it may be an indication that the virus follows a seasonal pattern similar to the Spanish flu.

The Spanish flu, the deadliest pandemic in human history, occurred in several waves in 1918 and sickened a third of the world’s population and killed millions, including 675,000 in the United States.

During the first wave of that pandemic, the cities of New York and Chicago were affected and then intensified, striking on a large scale other cities such as Boston, Detroit, Minneapolis and Philadelphia. While the second wave was more severe at the American national level.

And Stockholm said that if “Covid 19” falls back in the fall, the number of infections may jump to a climax, and hospitals that will then have to deal with influenza patients and other respiratory viruses will be overloaded.

Moreover, it was likely that Asian countries that contained the first wave of the virus, such as South Korea and Singapore, would be exposed to a second wave.

He stressed that “as much as we suffered from pain, suffering, deaths and economic turmoil as a result of corona, only 5 to 20 percent of people were affected, which is a small part of the expected proportion which ranges between 60 and 70 percent.”

However, there are fundamental differences between “Coffed 19” and the Spanish flu. The incubation rate for the emerging coronavirus is 5 days, compared to 2 days for influenza, according to the report of the Center for Research and Policy in Infectious Diseases.

The longer “Covid 19” incubation period and its higher prevalence rate indicate its rapid spread on a wider range of influenza.

And sterolme said that the only effective vaccine can slow the virus, before infecting a large segment of the population, which develops a certain level of immunity.

However, even if the vaccine works, it is still not known whether it is strong enough to give people a longer protection period from the virus that causes Covid 19, according to Osterholm.

So far, the United States has recorded 83 deaths and more than 1.4 million confirmed cases, according to Johns Hopkins University. The state of New York has been affected the most with 27,000 deaths, which means that at least 20 percent of its population is infected.





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