After a computational study, scientists predict the likely timing of the Corona epidemic in Russia


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Russian experts have set a prediction for when the spread of the Corona virus in the country will reach its peak, based on an analysis of the proportionality between the daily increase in HIV infections and the daily increase in the number of Corona tests.

To assess the dynamics of recorded cases of respiratory infection and the Coronavirus, specialists at the Research Laboratory for Modeling Social and Economic Systems at the Russian University of Economics in Moscow calculated the infection intensity index, by determining the percentages of the number of cases in the current month compared to the previous month.

The experts said in a report, that “based on the results of the research, and the results available for long-term monitoring of the seasonal course of some acute respiratory viral infections, we can expect a decrease in the rates of increase in the number of cases of Covid-19 in early November.”

The experts explained that the rate of increase in injuries will decline when “there will be no change in the ratio of the number of injured to the number of examinations that are carried out,” meaning that the number of injuries may increase in absolute terms, but if the rates of increase in injuries are equal to the rates of increasing the number of tests, then this It means that the peak of the outbreak has been reached.

Yesterday, Monday, Russia recorded 15,982 new cases of the virus, in the highest daily increase since the beginning of the epidemic, while the total number of infections in the country reached more than one million and 415 thousand cases.

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