Truce in the Caucasus | Egyptian today


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The agreement reached between Azerbaijan and Armenia on the Nagorno-Karabakh region is not a peace treaty and does not represent a final solution, but rather a ceasefire sponsored by Russia, whose president succeeded in bringing the warring parties together in order to endorse the agreement. During the forty days that formed the age of the war that broke out on the 27th of last September, three agreements to cease hostilities were violated, and it seems that the hope of improving the sites and achieving victories was pushing the two parties to revoke the armistice and resume fighting. The terms stipulated in the agreement explicitly refer to the surrender of the Armenian side after it realized that the balance of power in the field was not in its favor, and after it lost a large part of the land it had seized in the previous war in the early 1990s. Of course, the joys spread in Baku, the capital of Azerbaijan, while deep sadness reigned throughout Armenia, and demonstrations broke out denouncing the agreement and denouncing the signature of the Prime Minister, “Nikol Pashinyan”, a document returning to the Azeris a large part of their lands. The prime minister’s own statement appeared to be deeply saddened by his being forced to surrender and sign after the pressure he was subjected to from his army commanders who wanted to stop the fighting.

In comparing the population numbers in both Caucasian countries, we note the clear superiority of Azerbaijan (10 million) over Armenia (three million) .. But this may not be the decisive factor in the outcome of the war, because the same difference existed thirty years ago when the Armenians dominated Twenty percent of the area of ​​Azerbaijan. It is known that the two countries were part of the Soviet Union, which disintegrated, and Armenia had a remarkable military advantage at the time as a result of the involvement of Armenian officers in the Soviet army, while this was not true for the Azeris, who were militarily weak. Many factors could be behind Azerbaijan’s current supremacy, including that it imports advanced weapons from Russia thanks to its ability to pay cash, unlike Armenia, and among them is that it also imports arms from Israel and Turkey, while the Armenians still rely on antique Soviet systems that have not succeeded in restraining The drones acquired by the Azeris from Turkey .. And certainly the Soviet air defense did not take into account the drones that had not yet appeared. This agreement cannot be relied upon to establish peace as long as the two parties see it as a truce before the resumption of the fighting. Although Azerbaijan won out, the city of Stepanakert did not fall, and Armenians in Karabakh still see it as the capital of their state, which no one has recognized, not even Armenia!

The future of the agreement and the possibility of its transformation into a permanent peace treaty depends on two things: the return of the occupied Azerbaijani lands, in addition to the right to self-determination for the Armenian population who reside in the region and to ensure that they have equal rights, regardless of the name of the state in which they live … even if there is a conflict between the two matters. We do not see any prospect of real peace.

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