It is night US presidential electionSitting continuously in front of the TV screen for 10 consecutive hours while updating and following the latest news on social media platforms, but if US President Donald Trump or former Vice President Joe Biden did not admit defeat in the election race, would an American nightmare scenario begin for a disputed election?
Recounts begin, and as lawsuits are filed against the rejected ballot papers, civil unrest begins across the country, and shortly thereafter, a legal appeal is referred to the Supreme Court of the United States to decide who will become president.
Despite that expected scenario, much of all of this could be avoided if Americans were willing to wait for the election result. But how long is the wait? This is the most important question.
What’s the drawback?
It is the postal sounds.
In the 2016 US election, 33 million Americans voted by mail, but this year, due to the coronavirus pandemic, 82 million voters asked to vote by mail. Many states are still struggling to repeal decades-old laws that specify when mail voting can be opened, how it is administered, and the vote count that came through it.
In Michigan, a major swing state, for example, about 3 million voters are expected to vote by mail. However, since they are unable to begin the postal vote count until after 7 a.m. on Election Day, it may take days for Michigan to announce the result. This is assuming that a recount is not used.
President Trump is currently suffering from delayed mail deliveries due to the Coronavirus pandemic, as has previously withheld emergency funding for the US Postal Service after claiming that the mail vote could harm his campaign.
And previous voting data indicates that Democrats are more likely to vote by mail than Republicans, while Republicans are more likely to vote in person on the same day.
The second problem is the lawsuits.
When the outcome is too close, many fear states will face legal challenges over rejected ballots, further delaying the announcement of the result.
The most common reason for rejecting ballot papers is their arrival in the mail too late and not being included in the counting process, as well as other reasons such as an illegible signature or the loss of a second secret envelope.
Given the large number of ballots that will participate in the mail-order elections, compared to previous elections, it is also expected that the number of late and potentially rejected votes will increase.
In the 2016 election, President Trump won Michigan with less than 11,000 votes.
This is a small difference when you bear in mind that in August, during the Michigan primaries (when voters select each party’s candidates to run for a subsequent election), over 10,000 ballot papers were rejected, mainly because they arrived so late. To be included in the screening process.
If the votes on election night seem so close together, in many swing states, the number of votes rejected could become another controversial issue.
Is it possible to announce Result end of voting day?
Yes. Despite the postal delay, and based on current opinion polls, it is still possible to numerically announce the winner at the end of voting day, but for any of the candidates, an overwhelming victory is required.
To win a gold pass to enter the White House, Joe Biden or Donald Trump must win 270 or more electoral votes, because the president is not chosen directly by the electorate, but by what is known as the electoral college.
The number of electoral votes awarded to each state depends roughly on the size of its population, so the manner in which the electorate in each state vote, and thus to whom these electoral votes go, is extremely important.
69.5 million Americans had already mailed their ballot papers or voted early, and such a massive increase in early voting means that more than half of the votes counted during the 2016 election have already been cast.
In 2016, Trump celebrated his victory at around 02:30 EST (07:30 GMT) after the state of Wisconsin put him on the limit with 270 electoral votes. Even so, given the soaring number of mail-in votes, it is unlikely that many of the crucial states, (the ones that any of the candidates could win), will announce their results at night.
Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are all very important swing states. The postal vote management and counting process begins on Election Day, and they are vulnerable to all important potential recounts and lawsuits, if the outcome is close.
Hope rest in Florida, however.
As the largest state, it contributes 29 electoral votes, so voting in it will be an indication of whether any of the candidates has any chance to declare their victory at night or not.
Florida begins processing and verifying postal ballots up to 40 days before the election, and with more than 2.4 million postal votes already counted, there is still a small mountain of envelopes, but the chance of the state announcing the result at night is greater than most other swing states.
And if Biden, who is currently leading in polls, loses Florida, that would be a sign that he is unlikely to be declared winning the same night, and he could still cross the 270 electoral vote threshold by getting a mix of votes in North Carolina, Arizona, Iowa and Ohio But all likely tracks involve Florida so Biden can win the election at night.
And with Trump now backing down in the polls, even if the president wins Florida, he will still be unable to declare victory at the end of voting day, given the huge number of swing states that are unlikely to announce their results at the end of that day, unless the polls are, of course, wrong. .
And history, including the 2016 US election, has proven that polls can miss their predictions.
Do you Will seek American Television Networks To advertise The result at night?
In previous elections, the major US television networks “announced” the results long before all votes had been counted. By collaborating with polling firms and companies that monitor voter votes after polling in the polling stations, the major networks race to outpace their competitors to be the first to announce the winner of the US election race.
Once the media “announces” the result, the “losing” candidate is expected to quickly give up, before everyone goes to bed, so that the winner can announce their victory that night on the same networks.
A great way to ensure dramatic television news is published, but in 2020, with millions of mailings waiting to be sorted, much will also depend on the strength and patience of the US media at night.
Many fear this year will be a repeat of the chaos after the year 2000 during the White House race between George W. Bush and Al Gore.
Twenty years ago, on election night, and although many polls were very close to the election result, several television networks announced Al Gore’s victory in the main swing state of Florida, before the victory later passed to Bush, and Al Gore admitted defeat, and became Obviously, the race in Florida was very close, and then Al Gore backed away from declaring himself defeated.
After 36 days, and after a case before the Supreme Court, the Americans learned that Al Gore won the national vote, but Bush won the electoral college vote and thus won the presidency.
America is already paralyzed in 2020 due to the Corona virus pandemic, as well as being divided by the “Black Lives Matter” movement, and now Americans must wait for their next president.