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The American withdrawal from Afghanistan reminds you of the Arab proverb, “Oh, you wish, Abu Zaid, you did not invade” (or as if you, Abu Zaid, did not conquer). The Taliban, because of which America invaded Afghanistan, has returned and took control of many areas in the country and has become a threat to the current government, especially in light of the faltering peace talks that took place recently in Doha.
In fact, the question at hand goes beyond Afghanistan to reach the crisis of industrializing an elite and a political project outside the borders and trying to impose it by armed force, and the result is what happened in Iraq and Afghanistan..
The United States overthrew its invasion of Iraq the Saddam Hussein regime (and with it the Iraqi state), and established a new political system that was also characterized by weakness, which led to the rise of sectarian political elites and projects, as a result of Iranian interference and the American invasion, as well as the local environment, and almost delivered the country on a silver platter of Iranian influence. Which Iraq is still trying to get out of it.
The truth is that what happened in Afghanistan was more clear, especially when we watch the start of the withdrawal of American soldiers, and at the same time the Taliban movement continues to target government forces, until the outcome of the scene appeared that America invaded Afghanistan 20 years ago to bring down the Taliban’s rule, and now it leaves it trying in a faltering manner. To find an opportunity for the Taliban and the current government to share the rule, and at the same time it knows that the possibility of the Taliban returning to power exists strongly after their withdrawal..
Certainly, part of the Taliban’s strength is first due to the perception of a large segment of the Afghan people of the American presence as an occupying power, and it is considered that the government that supported it is an extension of this occupation, even if it is described as patriotism, as it was considered by the Taliban and a broad current of the Afghan people made American, and secondly related to the environment. The social supporter of the Taliban, which most of its members belong to the Pashtun nationality, and most of its people are concentrated in the east and south of the country and represent about 48% of Afghanistan’s population of about 28 million people.
The truth is that the national, tribal and religious environment in which the Taliban is rooted has made it impossible to eradicate it, because if it were just an extremist religious organization (Muslim Brotherhood, ISIS, Al Qaeda, or Salafi jihadism) then it could be eradicated, weakened or marginalized, but whoever has a social base based on a nationality or tribe It cannot be forcibly eliminated or eradicated from the scene.
The truth is that the lessons of what is going on in Afghanistan are many, and that the external role, if attended, should not go beyond supporting peaceful paths, civil projects, or building institutions. As for the idea of supporting a particular current or manufacturing elites outside the borders, its results are always disastrous..