The world is holding its breath and awaits the fall of the runaway Chinese missile, within the next few hours. The missile is expected to enter the Earth’s atmosphere on Sunday, leaving the question that haunts everyone: Where will the lost Chinese missile fall?
Despite the varied expectations about when and where the Chinese missile will enter the Earth, it is proven that the threatened area is fixed and known, which is the usual area in which the missile moves in 16 orbital paths over the course of a single day.
And because the missile moves in an elliptical trajectory, the orbital trajectories differ on each rotation.
The picture at the bottom shows a map of the areas in which the lost Chinese missile may have fallen.
This area extends between two circles of 40 degrees north and south latitude, and includes the entire Middle East and Africa, large parts of Asia and North America, most of South America, all of continental Australia and a small part of Europe, without including Russia.
The Chinese missile moves daily in 16 orbital paths, you can see the paths that the missile will take today through this video, to see if your country or region is on the path of the expected debris.
The Chinese missile passes through Egypt today, May 9, at 05:41 minutes, and until 05:46 minutes, provided that it enters this time from the northwest and moves to the southwest.
Watch a live broadcast of the Chinese missile tracker:
Date and point of entry to the Earth
Until now, space centers ’estimates of the date and place of the rocket’s entry into the Earth’s atmosphere differ. Periodically, the US “Aerospace Corporation” updates its predictions of the likely location of the missile to enter the Earth.
And in its latest forecast, the US Foundation said in a tweet on Twitter: Our latest prediction for the return of the rocket fuselage # LongMarch5B CZ-5B is Rocket09 May 2021 03:22 UTC ± 4 hours along the ground path.
According to the new forecast, the Chinese missile will enter the Earth’s atmosphere in an area near the Strait of Gibraltar, and will fall in the ocean in western North America.
The yellow icon represents the location of the Chinese missile at the time of its expected entry into Earth’s atmosphere. The orange line represents the visibility area at the expected re-entry time for a ground observer.
The blue line represents the orbital path of the Chinese missile before the expected entry (ticks at 5-minute intervals), and the yellow line represents the path of the missile after entering the ground. The white line is only a day / night barrier at the expected entry time (the position of the sun is indicated by the white icon). The pink icon represents – next to the eyewitness vision. Potential re-entry sites are anywhere along the blue and yellow ground path.
This prediction comes as an amendment from the previous forecast of the American Foundation and its Center for Orbital Return Studies and Debris “Cordes”, which it published about 12 hours ago, during which it expected that the Chinese missile body will enter the atmosphere within eight hours before or after 04:19 on Sunday ( GMT), near North Island in New Zealand.
Does he enter from Indonesia?
In turn, the Russian Federal Space Agency “Ross Cosmos” has identified another expected location and date for entering the Chinese missile debris.
Ross Cosmos stated on its official Telegram channel on Saturday that the uncontrolled second stage of the Long March 5B missile (which weighs 18 tons) may reach the Earth’s atmosphere after 02:30 in the morning on the 9th of May (11th). : 30 pm this Friday GMT) in the Timor Sea region in southern Indonesia.
A picture of the Russian Federal Space Agency’s forecast of the Chinese missile fall
Ross Cosmos confirmed that it continues to follow the course of the external phase out of control, pointing out that it is continuously losing its orbital height.
The agency stated that the indicators of the height of the missile and its bottom had decreased during the past 24 hours, from 267 and 156 km to 218 and 146 km, respectively.
US Army forecast
And unlike the two space agencies, the latest estimates by the US military predict that the out-of-control Chinese missile will land somewhere in Tajikistan or Turkmenistan, Central Asia, on Sunday (around 7 p.m. Saturday, EST).
She indicated that he would fall on land and not in the ocean, while his fall in a populated area remains possible, according to the network, “CNN” of America.
“According to the latest estimates that I have seen, this is expected to happen on the eighth (Saturday) or the ninth (Sunday) of May,” US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said during a press conference Thursday.
“We hope that he will fall somewhere where he does not harm anyone, in the ocean or somewhere like that. We hope so,” he added.
The inconsistency of expectations and their modification by the same institution more than once indicates the extent of the uncertainty that prevails in the forecasts, whether for the paths of the industrial missile before or after it enters the Earth’s atmosphere. The accuracy of the predictions depends on more than one factor, external, so the possibility of entry anywhere along the orbital paths of the Chinese missile remains possible. Below is a map of the uncertainties and the full possibilities of the places from which the Chinese missile may enter.
The past scenario shows the likely location of the Chinese missile to enter the earth through it, and it also includes the expected orbital paths of the missile before and after entering the earth, and the point at which the missile is expected to fall on the ground. To understand the map more clearly, here are its symbols:
Yellow Icon – the location of the Chinese missile at the expected re-entry time
Orange circle – visibility area at the time of expected re-entry for a ground observer
Blue Line – possible orbital paths of a Chinese missile prior to the expected entry into Earth (ticks at 5-minute intervals)
Yellow line – possible orbital paths after the expected entry (ticks at 5-minute intervals)
White line – day / night barrier at expected re-entry time (position of the sun is indicated by white icon)
Pink icon – next to the eyewitness vision
Note: Potential re-entry sites are anywhere along the blue and yellow ground path.
The potential entry sites stretch between 40 degrees north and south latitude, which is the usual area for a Chinese missile to move in.