Sanctions on Putin .. Will Russia pay the price for its “back gardens”?

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The bill, “Defending the Sovereignty of Ukraine”, provides for sanctions against Putin, his prime minister, Mikhail Mishustin, senior military officials and many entities of the Russian banking sector, in the event of an “invasion” or “escalation of Russian hostilities” against Ukraine.

The Russian Kremlin responded, on Thursday, that “NATO cannot determine for us the location of the deployment of our forces within our territory,” and that “the sanctions that American lawmakers threaten against Putin will constitute an overstepping of the border.”

The Kremlin also described security talks with Washington and NATO on Ukraine as “failed”, stressing that “there are differences on core issues.”

The crises of Ukraine and Kazakhstan between Moscow and the West, and before them Belarus, represented a point of contention and tension between the international powers.
Although the “peacekeeping” forces of the Collective Security Treaty Organization, led by Russia, began withdrawing from Kazakhstan on Thursday, it left experts and specialists with questions about the legality of this intervention and its future repercussions on the relationship between Moscow and the West.

Analysts believe that the US threat to impose sanctions on Putin is against what they described as “Putin’s Doctrine”, which seeks to unify the axis of the three Slavic countries, including Ukraine and Belarus, and restore the dream of the Soviet Union.

This vision also appears, according to observers, in the draft treaties proposed by Putin’s government as a price for not invading Ukraine, as its content demands an internationally recognized Russian sphere of influence that includes the former Soviet Union and a large part of Eastern Europe.

Commenting on this point, the Russian journalist and researcher, Artyom Kapchuk, said in statements to “Sky News Arabia” that “the question of Putin’s doctrine is inspired by the West, and the dream of a united Russia is unrealistic and baseless.”

Kapchuk added: Putin’s dream and re-glories Soviet UnionJust issues raised by the West.”

Regarding Putin, Kapchuk said: “There is no Putin who decides everything, and there is no expansionist policy for Russia in the region.”

For his part, Ashraf Al-Sabbagh, a specialist in Russian affairs, said: “The plans, policies and ambitions of the Kremlin raise the concerns of the American and Euro-Atlantic West, and I believe that Washington, which leads NATO, is actually working to put Russia under the largest and most severe siege because Moscow’s policies are unpredictable.”

Ukraine crisis

Talks between the United States and Russia began on Monday, UkraineAnd it came amid fears of a Russian invasion of Kiev, which is pro-Western, but, according to the Kremlin, it failed.

Despite Moscow’s denials of planning an attack, despite amassing thousands of troops on Ukraine’s borders, on Wednesday, the Russian army conducted military maneuvers with live ammunition in areas, some of which are close to Ukraine, that could explode the situation.

Those escalating moves between Washington, prompted observers to express their concerns about what they described as “the militarization of the crisis and the blockage of the horizon for a political solution.”

And here Al-Sabbagh returns to confirm that the American President Of the bygones He wants Russia to intervene militarily in Ukraine to complete the cycle and start a new phase like the Soviet Union, noting that “the matter does not tolerate any direct military confrontation in light of everyone possessing nuclear weapons.”

As for Kapchuk, he explained: “Russia has no dream of one state with Ukraine, especially after the events of 2014, and the situation is that everyone is in deep predicament, whether NATO or Russia.”

He continued, “Western sanctions against Moscow are useful internally, as they may push the conservative elites inside Russia to cleanse the ruling structure of the influence of the liberal elites inherited from the 1990s, and this is something that the majority of Russians aspire to.”

Intervention in Kazakhstan

Over the past few days, Moscow has sent military forces to Kazakhstan Within the forces of the Collective Action Organization under its leadership, which sparked a wave of anger and international condemnation.

Moscow also supported Belarus during the recent border tensions with Poland, prompting the West to denounce this as a “mixed attack”.
In this context, Al-Sabbagh indicated that “the introduction of Russian forces into Kazakhstan reminds us of the invasion of Czechoslovakia in 1968, with the Communist Party’s request to confront the famous protests at the time, and today the matter is repeated in Kazakhstan, where its president appealed to Russia.”

In contrast to the Ukrainian and Kazakh issues, the “doctrine of PutinIn his declaration and his Belarusian counterpart Alexander Lukashenko in November 2021 to update the so-called “military doctrine of the State of the Russian Federation”, where they signed several military agreements, an integration document and 28 alliance programs between the two countries.

Regarding the subjugation of Belarus, Al-Sabbagh explains: “Russias dream of one state that includes it with Ukraine and Belarus, which are the three Slavic countries, is impossible to achieve, because the nature of Russias violent relations with the two countries and their use as bargaining chips and pressure with the West raises its fears.”

But he added, “Maybe there is a very formal unity between Russia And Belarus, but they have radical differences in several files, and therefore, the doctrine of Putin and the Kremlin is facing a major failure, but rather tightened the siege around Russia, and pushed it to mistakes similar to the Soviet Union, which collapsed without war.

He explained this by saying that Russias blockade of these crises “was manifested through sanctions and restrictions on the export of advanced technologies, the spread of Western weapons in NATO countries, and the increase in the pace of maneuvers with the Black Sea and Baltic countries.”

Kapchuk disagrees with al-Sabbagh, expressing his opinion on this issue, saying: “The issue of Russias blockade because of its support for Kazakhstan and Belarus, and the current tension with Ukraine, is a defensive phenomenon and an attack issue,” noting that “the attack may be from the Russian side and the West in the defense position.”

As for the scene in Kazakhstan, he asserts, “It is very complicated, and Russia is defending itself and its security under the blows of the West, which has gone mad at Russias renaissance, and has dropped all masks and started to provoke internal revolutions and unrest, especially after exposing its networks inside Moscow.”







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